As you prepare for your fantasy basketball draft, it’s important to know which players are improving and who might be facing challenges. A player’s Average Draft Position (ADP), which is where they are typically selected in drafts, can change a lot from year to year. Understanding these trends helps you find great value and avoid risky picks. This guide looks at some of the key players whose fantasy value is either rising or falling ahead of the 2025-26 season.
📈 Players on the Rise
These players were drafted much later last season but are now expected to be picked much earlier due to their strong performances and bigger roles.
Dyson Daniels, Hawks After joining the Hawks from the Pelicans, Dyson Daniels was given a starting role and truly shined. He became a defensive specialist, leading the league in steals, and also contributed as a playmaker. This season, his offensive chances might be a bit more limited with Jalen Johnson healthy and Kristaps Porziņģis joining the team. While he may not take another huge leap forward, he is expected to maintain the excellent value he established last year.
Amen Thompson, Rockets Amen Thompson started last season with an unclear role, but an injury to a teammate gave him a chance to join the starting lineup, and he never looked back. His amazing athleticism, passing, and defense made him a valuable fantasy player, even though his shooting is still developing. This year, the addition of Kevin Durant means he will have to share the ball more. He will likely improve his efficiency rather than his scoring volume, but he is still set for a more productive season.
Deni Avdija, Trail Blazers When Deni Avdija was traded to the Trail Blazers, he began on the bench. However, he quickly earned the coach’s trust and took on a major playmaking role, especially when the team had injuries. With key players like Anfernee Simons and Deandre Ayton leaving the team, Avdija now has a secure starting spot. He is in a great position to become one of Portland’s top scorers this season.
Josh Hart, Knicks Josh Hart was a surprise fantasy star last season. Many expected him to have a small role, but he ended up playing more minutes than anyone in the league under coach Tom Thibodeau. This huge amount of playing time led to fantastic all-around stats. This season, the Knicks have a new coach, Mike Brown, who is not known for playing his starters such heavy minutes. Hart is still a solid draft pick, but it’s likely his production will be a little lower than last year.
Donovan Clingan, Trail Blazers As a rookie, Donovan Clingan played as a backup but showed great potential as a rebounder and shot-blocker whenever he got the chance. With starting center Deandre Ayton now on the Lakers, Clingan is set to become Portland’s full-time starter. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he has the potential to average a double-double with more than two blocks per game, making him a very exciting fantasy prospect.
📉 Players Facing Challenges
These players were drafted highly last season, but their fantasy value has dropped due to injuries, changing roles, or inconsistent performance.
Tobias Harris, Pistons Tobias Harris was expected to be a key scorer for the Pistons, but he didn’t take on a bigger offensive role. Instead, Cade Cunningham became the team’s main star. This season, with other young players on the team improving, Harris’s role could shrink even more. He is still a reliable source of points and rebounds, but his potential for big fantasy numbers seems limited.
Paul George, 76ers Paul George’s fantasy value took a hit after an injury-filled season where he never quite looked like himself. He also had knee surgery in the offseason, which has made fantasy managers cautious. If he can stay healthy, he could be a fantastic bargain at his current draft position as part of the 76ers’ “Big 3.” However, concerns about his age and health make him a risky pick.
Joel Embiid, 76ers After several healthy seasons, Joel Embiid’s injury problems returned last year, as he played in only 19 games and needed knee surgery. When he did play, his performance was far below his usual high standards. Although there are positive reports about his recovery, fantasy managers are very hesitant. His talent is undeniable, but the risk of injury makes him one of the biggest questions in this year’s draft.
D’Angelo Russell, Mavericks D’Angelo Russell had a tough season last year, struggling with his shooting at the Lakers before being traded. His performance was often inconsistent. This season, he has a new opportunity with the Mavericks as their starting point guard while Kyrie Irving recovers from an injury. He has good short-term potential, but fantasy managers are not yet convinced he will be a reliable long-term option.
Lauri Markkanen, Jazz After an incredible comeback season two years ago, Lauri Markkanen had a disappointing 2024-25 campaign. He struggled with injuries and inconsistent play, and the Jazz rested him toward the end of the season. As a result, fantasy managers who drafted him early last year were let down, and his draft value has fallen quite a bit for the upcoming season.
